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| 20/05/2008 |
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Pedra Branca predictions
By Neutral Party @ 6:20 PM :: 1110 Views ::
4 Comments :: :: General
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My dad who is in the UK for a retirement holiday asked me to sms him the result of the ICJ case but the result would only be released a few days from now.
My first assumption was that Singapore was going to lose. Consider that the lighthouse is barely 15 km from Malaysia and over 40 km from Singapore, proximity alone is a strong influence on why the lighthouse should be Malaysia's.
Coming after prof Jayakumar displayed his quiet confidence over the issue on TV, I took the opportunity to review and read the written and oral pleadings in the ICJ.
The impressions were that the conduct of the ICJ case were the equivalent of a war (albeit diplomatic minds rather than physical combat). The prize is only a rock but there is a huge difference between a white diamond and a flake of granite.
On our side, are the finest of Singapore's minds assisted by its allies defending the tiny red dot. On the other, a team of the finest lawyers fresh from a victory over Indonesia, looking for another scalp to add to Malaysia's trophy case.
To Singapore, the lighthouse was treated as a diamond. Time after time for over 130 years, Singapore demonstrated its tender care in its pleadings. Nothing struck me so much that despite never ever making a single overt territorial claim over Pedra Branca, its consistency to claim could not be contradicted. Over 130 years of documents yet, continuity and consistency of typical Singaporean fashion showed. Legislation, carefully prepared, formed the weave in which Singapore's claim to the island could be joined. The greatest testimony to the skill of Singapore's pioneers.
On the other side, Malaysia can't even produce a single document that mentioned that the island belongs to it. Even if Malaysia did really own the island, their treatment of it as a mere flake of granite in the sea of Malaysian sand ie in the records they keep or lack thereof, puts their contention in doubt.
Yet, Malaysia can never be underestimated. Even when a document issued by the Johor Government expressedly states that they do not claim ownership over the island of Pedra Branca, it is a clear demonstration of their skill that "they" can instead be replaced by Singapore; that Singapore doesn't own it.
The tapestry in my mind after reading the documents was of the old political guard creating the arms (legislation or effitivities) that the current frontline soldiers in the ICJ would use to defend Singapore. Win or lose, Singapore's treatment of Pedra Branca as defended by our diplomats will forever edge in my mind that at least for 130 years, Singapore were the true owners of the island.
My response to my dad? Its still a few days yet but I too am quietly confident.
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